вот:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25658252
Men born in 1913 followed to age 100 years.
Wilhelmsen L1, Dellborg M, Welin L, Svärdsudd K.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES:
To examine causes of death for men above 80 years of age, and health status in centenarians in a cohort of men followed from age 50 years. Factors of importance for survival were studied.
DESIGN:
A representative sample of men born in 1913 was first examined in 1963 and re-examined at ages 54, 60, 67, 75, 80 and 100 years.
RESULTS:
Of 973 selected men, 855 (88%) were examined at age 50, and 10 were alive at age 100.Twenty-seven percent lived until 80 years. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of death after this age. Dementia was recorded in two of ten men at age 100.
Long survival was related to the mothers' high age at death, to non-smoking, high social class at age 50 and high maximum working capacity at age 54 years. At age 100, the seven examined men had low/normal blood pressure. Serum values of troponin T, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptides and C-reactive protein were elevated, but echocardiographic findings were normal.
CONCLUSIONS:
Ten men experienced their 100th birthday. Survival was related to non-smoking,
mothers' high age at death, high social class and previous high physical working capacity. Age-adjusted reference levels for laboratory tests are needed for centenarians.
т.е. они это указывают на первом месте, как наисамый предсказатель.